Quantification of flexibility from the thermal mass of residential buildings in England and Wales

Abstract: The increased integration of variable renewable generation into the power systems, along with the phase-out of fossil-based power stations, necessitate procuring more flexibility from the demand sectors. The electrification of the residential heat sector is an option to decarbonise the heat sector in the United Kingdom. The inherent flexibility that is available in the residential heat sector, in the form of the thermal inertia of buildings, is expected to play an important role in supporting the critical task of short-term balancing of electricity supply and demand. This paper proposes a method for characterising the locally aggregated flexibility envelope from the electrified residential heat sector, considering the most influential factors including outdoor and indoor temperature, thermal mass and heat loss of dwellings. Applying the method to England and Wales as a case study, demonstrated a significant potential for a temporary reduction of electricity demand for heating even during cold weather. Total electricity demand reductions of approximately 25 GW to 85 GW were shown to be achievable for the outdoor temperature of 10 degreeC and -5 degreeC, respectively. Improving the energy performance of the housing stock in England and Wales was shown to reduce the magnitude of available flexibility to approximately 18 GW to 60 GW for the outdoor temperature of 10 degreeC and -5 degreeC, respectively. This is due to the use of smaller size heat pumps in the more efficient housing stock. However, the impact of the buildings' retrofit on their thermal mass and consequently on the duration of the flexibility provision is uncertain.