Testing for Overfitting

Abstract: High complexity models are notorious in machine learning for overfitting, a phenomenon in which models well represent data but fail to generalize an underlying data generating process. A typical procedure for circumventing overfitting computes empirical risk on a holdout set and halts once (or flags that/when) it begins to increase. Such practice often helps in outputting a well-generalizing model, but justification for why it works is primarily heuristic. We discuss the overfitting problem and explain why standard asymptotic and concentration results do not hold for evaluation with training data. We then proceed to introduce and argue for a hypothesis test by means of which both model performance may be evaluated using training data, and overfitting quantitatively defined and detected. We rely on said concentration bounds which guarantee that empirical means should, with high probability, approximate their true mean to conclude that they should approximate each other. We stipulate conditions under which this test is valid, describe how the test may be used for identifying overfitting, articulate a further nuance according to which distributional shift may be flagged, and highlight an alternative notion of learning which usefully captures generalization in the absence of uniform PAC guarantees.