On Assumptions with Respect to Occlusions in Urban Environments for Automated Vehicle Speed Decisions

Abstract: Automated driving systems are subject to various kinds of uncertainty during design, development, and operation. These kinds of uncertainty lead to an inherent risk of the technology that can be mitigated, but never fully eliminated. Situations involving obscured traffic participants have become popular examples in the field to illustrate a subset of these uncertainties that developers must deal with during system design and implementation. In this paper, we describe necessary assumptions for a speed choice in a situation in which an ego-vehicle passes parked vehicles that generate occluded areas where a human intending to cross the road could be obscured. We develop a calculation formula for a dynamic speed limit that mitigates the collision risk in this situation, and investigate the resulting speed profiles in simulation based on example assumptions. This paper has two main results: First, we show that even without worst-case assumptions, dramatically reduced speeds would be driven to avoid collisions. Second, we highlight that design decisions regarding occlusion treatment are directly related to the risk that automated vehicles pose to pedestrians in urban environments. In this respect, we conclude that there needs to be a broader discussion about acceptable assumptions.