On Consistency of Signature Using Lasso

Abstract: Signatures are iterated path integrals of continuous and discrete-time processes, and their universal nonlinearity linearizes the problem of feature selection in time series data analysis. This paper studies the consistency of signature using Lasso regression, both theoretically and numerically. We establish conditions under which the Lasso regression is consistent both asymptotically and in finite sample. Furthermore, we show that the Lasso regression is more consistent with the It^o signature for time series and processes that are closer to the Brownian motion and with weaker inter-dimensional correlations, while it is more consistent with the Stratonovich signature for mean-reverting time series and processes. We demonstrate that signature can be applied to learn nonlinear functions and option prices with high accuracy, and the performance depends on properties of the underlying process and the choice of the signature.