Statistical Study of Uncontrolled Geostationary Satellites Near an Unstable Equilibrium Point

Abstract: The growth of the population of space debris in the geostationary ring and the resulting threat to active satellites require insight into the dynamics of uncontrolled objects in the region. A Monte Carlo simulation analyzed the sensitivity to initial conditions of the long-term evolution of geostationary spacecraft near an unstable point of the geopotential, where irregular behavior (e.g., transitions between long libration and continuous circulation) occurs. A statistical analysis unveiled sudden transitions from order to disorder, interspersed with intervals of smooth evolution. There is a periodicity of approximately half a century in the episodes of disorder, suggesting a connection with the precession of the orbital plane, due to Earth's oblateness and lunisolar perturbations. The third-degree harmonics of the geopotential also play a vital role. They introduce an asymmetry between the unstable equilibrium points, enabling the long libration mode. The unpredictability occurs just in a small fraction of the precession cycle, when the inclination is close to zero. A simplified model, including only gravity harmonics up to degree 3 and the Earth and Moon in circular coplanar orbits is capable of reproducing most features of the high-fidelity simulation.