Estimating excess mortality in high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract: Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess mortality, and apply it to obtain estimates and uncertainty bounds for 30 countries with publicly available data. The results uncover remarkable variation in pandemic outcomes across different countries. We further compare our findings with existing estimates published in other major scientific outlets, highlighting the importance of proper age adjustment to obtain unbiased figures.