The union-closed sets conjecture for non-uniform distributions

Abstract: The union-closed sets conjecture, attributed to P\'eter Frankl from 1979, states that for any non-empty finite union-closed family of finite sets not consisting of only the empty set, there is an element that is in at least half of the sets in the family. We prove a version of Frankl's conjecture for families distributed according to any one of infinitely many distributions. As a corollary, in the intersection-closed reformulation of Frankl's conjecture, we obtain that it is true for families distributed according to any one of infinitely many Maxwell--Boltzmann distributions with inverse temperatures bounded below by a positive universal constant. Frankl's original conjecture corresponds to zero inverse temperature.