Space-dependent Aggregation of Stochastic Data-driven Turbulence Models

Abstract: A stochastic Machine-Learning approach is developed for data-driven Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) predictions of turbulent flows, with quantified model uncertainty. This is done by combining a Bayesian symbolic identification methodology for learning stochastic RANS model corrections for selected classes of flows (expert models), and a Mixture-of-Experts methodology that aggregates their predictions. The expert models are learned using the recently proposed SBL-SpaRTA algorithm, which generates sparse analytical expressions of the corrective terms with model parameters described by probability distributions. They outperform the baseline RANS model for flows similar to those used for training, but their generalization to different flows is not warranted. With the aim of quantifying the predictive uncertainty associated with the data-driven models while improving predictive accuracy and generalization capabilities, a space-dependent model aggregation technique (XMA) is then adopted. A gating function, which assigns each model a performance score (weight) based on a vector of local flow features, is trained alongside the expert models. The weights can be interpreted as the probability that a candidate model will outperform its competitors given the flow behavior at a given location. Predictions of unseen flows are formulated as a locally weighted average of the stochastic solutions of the expert models. A prediction uncertainty estimate is obtained by propagating the models' posterior parameter distributions and by evaluating the inter-model prediction variance. The expectancy of the XMA prediction is significantly more accurate than the baseline deterministic solution and the individual solutions of the experts for well-documented benchmark flows not included in the training set, while providing consistent estimates of the predictive variance.