Gravitational Waves from SMBH Binaries in Light of the NANOGrav 15-Year Data

Abstract: The NANOGrav Collaboration has recently announced evidence for nHz gravitational waves (GWs), in the form of a Hellings-Downs angular correlation in the common-spectrum process that had been observed previously by them and other Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs). We analyze the possibility that these GWs originate from binary supermassive black holes (SMBHs) with total masses $\gtrsim 10^9\, M_{\odot}$. The spectral index of the GW signal differs at 95 % CL from that predicted for binary evolution by GW emission alone, and we find $> 3 \sigma$ evidence that environmental effects such as dynamical friction with gas, stars, and dark matter may be affecting the binary evolution. We estimate the required magnitude and spectrum of such environmental effects and comment on their possible implications for measurements of GWs at higher frequencies.