Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification on Point Defect Kinetics Equations with Perturbation Analysis

Abstract: The concentration of radiation-induced point defects in general materials under irradiation is commonly described by the point defect kinetics equations based on rate theory. However, the parametric uncertainty in describing the rate constants of competing physical processes such as recombination and loss to sinks can lead to a large uncertainty in predicting the time-evolving point defect concentrations. Here, based on the perturbation theory, we derived up to the third order correction to the solution of point defect kinetics equations. This new set of equations enable a full description of continuously changing rate constants, and can accurately predict the solution up to $50\%$ deviation in these rate constants. These analyses can also be applied to reveal the sensitivity of solution to input parameters and aggregated uncertainty from multiple rate constants.