Machine Learning Predictions of High-Curie-Temperature Materials

Abstract: Technologies that function at room temperature often require magnets with a high Curie temperature, $T_\mathrm{C}$, and can be improved with better materials. Discovering magnetic materials with a substantial $T_\mathrm{C}$ is challenging because of the large number of candidates and the cost of fabricating and testing them. Using the two largest known data sets of experimental Curie temperatures, we develop machine-learning models to make rapid $T_\mathrm{C}$ predictions solely based on the chemical composition of a material. We train a random forest model and a $k$-NN one and predict on an initial dataset of over 2,500 materials and then validate the model on a new dataset containing over 3,000 entries. The accuracy is compared for multiple compounds' representations ("descriptors") and regression approaches. A random forest model provides the most accurate predictions and is not improved by dimensionality reduction or by using more complex descriptors based on atomic properties. A random forest model trained on a combination of both datasets shows that cobalt-rich and iron-rich materials have the highest Curie temperatures for all binary and ternary compounds. An analysis of the model reveals systematic error that causes the model to over-predict low-$T_\mathrm{C}$ materials and under-predict high-$T_\mathrm{C}$ materials. For exhaustive searches to find new high-$T_\mathrm{C}$ materials, analysis of the learning rate suggests either that much more data is needed or that more efficient descriptors are necessary.