A pair-based approximation for simplicial contagion

Abstract: Higher-order interactions play an important role in complex contagion processes. Mean-field approximations have been used to characterize the onset of spreading in the presence of group interactions. However, individual-based mean-field models are unable to capture correlations between different subsets of nodes, which can significantly influence the dynamics of a contagion process. In this paper, we introduce a pair-based mean-field approximation that allows to study the dynamics of a SIS model on simplicial complexes by taking into account correlations at the level of pairs of nodes. %by taking into account dynamical correlations emerging in groups of nodes. Compared to individual-based mean-field approaches, the proposed approximation yields more accurate predictions of the dynamics of contagion processes on simplicial complexes. Specifically, the pair-based mean-field approximation provides higher accuracy in predicting the extent of the region of bistability, the type of transition from disease-free to endemic state, and the average time evolution of the fraction of infected individuals. Crucially, the pair-based approximation correctly predicts that the onset of the epidemic outbreak in simplicial complexes depends on the strength of higher-order interactions. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of accounting for pair correlations when investigating contagion processes in the presence of higher-order interactions.