The Galactic Interstellar Object Population: A Framework for Prediction and Inference

Abstract: The Milky Way is thought to host a huge population of interstellar objects (ISOs), numbering approximately $10^{15}\mathrm{pc}^{-3}$ around the Sun, which are formed and shaped by a diverse set of processes ranging from planet formation to galactic dynamics. We define a novel framework: firstly to predict the properties of this Galactic ISO population by combining models of processes across planetary and galactic scales, and secondly to make inferences about the processes modelled, by comparing the predicted population to what is observed. We predict the spatial and compositional distribution of the Galaxy's population of ISOs by modelling the Galactic stellar population with data from the APOGEE survey and combining this with a protoplanetary disk chemistry model. Selecting ISO water mass fraction as an example observable quantity, we evaluate its distribution both at the position of the Sun and averaged over the Galactic disk; our prediction for the Solar neighbourhood is compatible with the inferred water mass fraction of 2I/Borisov. We show that the well-studied Galactic stellar metallicity gradient has a corresponding ISO compositional gradient. We also demonstrate the inference part of the framework by using the current observed ISO composition distribution to constrain the parent star metallicity dependence of the ISO production rate. This constraint, and other inferences made with this framework, will improve dramatically as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) progresses and more ISOs are observed. Finally, we explore generalisations of this framework to other Galactic populations, such as that of exoplanets.