Fundamental dynamics of popularity-similarity trajectories in real networks

Abstract: Real networks are complex dynamical systems, evolving over time with the addition and deletion of nodes and links. Currently, there exists no principled mathematical theory for their dynamics -- a grand-challenge open problem. Here, we show that the popularity and similarity trajectories of nodes in hyperbolic embeddings of different real networks manifest universal self-similar properties with typical Hurst exponents $H \ll 0.5$. This means that the trajectories are predictable, displaying anti-persistent or 'mean-reverting' behavior, and they can be adequately captured by a fractional Brownian motion process. The observed behavior can be qualitatively reproduced in synthetic networks that possess a latent geometric space, but not in networks that lack such space, suggesting that the observed subdiffusive dynamics are inherently linked to the hidden geometry of real networks. These results set the foundations for rigorous mathematical machinery for describing and predicting real network dynamics.