Future changes in the vertical structure of severe convective storm environments over the U.S. central Great Plains

Abstract: The effect of warming on severe convective storm potential is commonly explained in terms of changes in vertically-integrated ("bulk") environmental parameters, such as CAPE and 0--6 km shear. However, such events are known to depend on details of the vertical structure of the thermodynamic and kinematic environment that can change independently of these bulk parameters. This work examines how warming may affect the complete vertical structure of these environments for fixed ranges of values of high CAPE and bulk shear, using data over the central Great Plains from two high-performing climate models. Temperature profiles warm relatively uniformly with height, with a slight decrease in free tropospheric lapse rate, and the tropopause shifts upwards at constant temperature. The boundary layer becomes slightly drier (-2--4\% relative humidity) while the free troposphere becomes slightly moister (+2--3\%). Moist static energy (MSE) increases relatively uniformly with height with slightly larger increase within the boundary layer. Moist static energy deficit increases slightly above 4 km altitude. Wind shear and storm-relative helicity increase within the lowest 1.5 km associated with stronger hodograph curvature. Changes are broadly consistent between the two models despite differing biases relative to ERA5. The increased low-level shear and SRH suggests an increased potential for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, while the slight increase in free tropospheric MSE deficit (enhanced entrainment) and decrease in boundary layer relative humidity (higher LCL) may oppose these effects. Evaluation of the net response of severe convective storm outcomes cannot be ascertained here but could be explored in simulation experiments.