Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Mitigation of Risk of Cascading Failures

Abstract: We introduce a novel data-driven method to mitigate the risk of cascading failures in delayed discrete-time Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) systems. Our approach involves formulating a distributionally robust finite-horizon optimal control problem, where the objective is to minimize a given performance function while satisfying a set of distributionally chances constraints on cascading failures, which accounts for the impact of a known sequence of failures that can be characterized using nested sets. The optimal control problem becomes challenging as the risk of cascading failures and input time-delay poses limitations on the set of feasible control inputs. However, by solving the convex formulation of the distributionally robust model predictive control (DRMPC) problem, the proposed approach is able to keep the system from cascading failures while maintaining the system's performance with delayed control input, which has important implications for designing and operating complex engineering systems, where cascading failures can severely affect system performance, safety, and reliability.