Grid Frequency Forecasting in University Campuses using Convolutional LSTM

Abstract: The modern power grid is facing increasing complexities, primarily stemming from the integration of renewable energy sources and evolving consumption patterns. This paper introduces an innovative methodology that harnesses Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to establish robust time series forecasting models for grid frequency. These models effectively capture the spatiotemporal intricacies inherent in grid frequency data, significantly enhancing prediction accuracy and bolstering power grid reliability. The research explores the potential and development of individualized Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) models for buildings within a university campus, enabling them to be independently trained and evaluated for each building. Individual ConvLSTM models are trained on power consumption data for each campus building and forecast the grid frequency based on historical trends. The results convincingly demonstrate the superiority of the proposed models over traditional forecasting techniques, as evidenced by performance metrics such as Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Additionally, an Ensemble Model is formulated to aggregate insights from the building-specific models, delivering comprehensive forecasts for the entire campus. This approach ensures the privacy and security of power consumption data specific to each building.