Green ammonia supply chain and associated market structure: an analysis based on transaction cost economics

Abstract: Green ammonia is poised to be a key part in the hydrogen economy. This paper discusses green ammonia supply chains from a higher-level industry perspective with a focus on market structures. The architecture of upstream and downstream supply chains are explored. Potential ways to accelerate market emergence are discussed. Market structure is explored based on transaction cost economics and lessons from the oil and gas industry. Three market structure prototypes are developed for different phases. In the infancy, a highly vertically integrated structure is proposed to reduce risks and ensure capital recovery. A restructuring towards a disintegrated structure is necessary in the next stage to improve the efficiency. In the late stage, a competitive structure characterized by a separation between asset ownership and production activities and further development of short-term and spot markets is proposed towards a market-driven industry. Finally, a multi-linear regression model is developed to evaluate the developed structures using a case in the gas industry. Results indicate that high asset specificity and uncertainty and low frequency lead to a more disintegrated market structure, and vice versa, thus supporting the structures designed. We assume the findings and results contribute to developing green ammonia supply chains and the hydrogen economy.