Reverse Engineering the Reproduction Number: A Framework for Data-Driven Counterfactual Analysis, Strategy Evaluation, and Feedback Control of Epidemics

Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, different countries, regions, and communities constructed various epidemic models to evaluate spreading behaviors and assist in making mitigation policies. Model uncertainties, introduced by complex transmission behaviors, contact-tracing networks, time-varying spreading parameters, and human factors, as well as insufficient data, have posed arduous challenges for model-based approaches. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework for data-driven counterfactual analysis, strategy evaluation, and feedback control of epidemics, which leverages statistical information from epidemic testing data instead of constructing a specific model. Through reverse engineering the reproduction number by quantifying the impact of the intervention strategy, this framework tackles three primary problems: 1) How severe would an outbreak have been without the implemented intervention strategies? 2) What impact would varying the intervention strength have had on an outbreak? 3) How can we adjust the intervention intensity based on the current state of an outbreak? Specifically, we consider the epidemic intervention policies such as the testing-for-isolation strategy as an example, which was successfully implemented by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) and Purdue University (Purdue) during the COVID-19 pandemic. By leveraging data collected by UIUC and Purdue, we validate the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven framework.