Multi-stage optimisation towards transformation pathways for municipal energy systems

Abstract: An essential facet of achieving climate neutrality by 2045 is the decarbonization of municipal energy systems. To accomplish this, it is necessary to establish implementation concepts that detail the timing, location, and specific measures required to achieve decarbonization. This restructuring process involves identifying the measures that offer the most compelling techno-economic and ecological advantages. In particular, measures that contribute to the interconnection of energy vectors and domains, e.g. heating, cooling, and electricity supply, in the sense of decentralized multi-energy systems are a promising future development option. Due to the high complexity resulting from a multitude of decision options as well as a temporal coupling across the transformation path, the use of optimization methods is required, which enable a bottom-up identification of suitable transformation solutions in a high spatial resolution. For the design of reasonable concepts, we develop a multistage optimization problem for the derivation of transformation pathways in the context of a multi-location structure, expansion, and operation problem. The results show that the heat supply in the future will mainly be provided by heat pumps with a share of 60%. It can also be shown that an early dismantling of the gas network will lead to the need for transitional technologies such as pellet heating. Overall, the conversion of the municipal energy system can significantly reduce emissions (97%).