Coronal dimmings as indicators of early CME propagation direction

Abstract: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are solar eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields that significantly impact Space Weather, causing disruptions in technological systems and potential damage to power grids when directed towards Earth. Traditional coronagraphs along the Sun-Earth line struggle to precisely track the early evolution of Earth-directed CMEs. Coronal dimmings, localized reductions in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-ray emissions, are key indicators of CMEs in the low corona, resulting from mass loss and expansion during the eruption. This study introduces a novel method, DIRECD (Dimming InfeRred Estimate of CME Direction), to estimate the early propagation direction of CMEs based on the expansion of coronal dimmings. The approach involves 3D simulations of CMEs using a geometric cone model, exploring parameters like width, height, source location, and deflection from the radial direction. The dominant direction of dimming evolution is then determined, and an inverse problem is solved to reconstruct an ensemble of CME cones at various heights, widths, and deflections. By comparing the CME orthogonal projections onto the solar sphere with the dimming geometry, the 3D CME direction is derived. Validated through case studies on October 1, 2011, and September 6, 2011, the DIRECD method reveals the early propagation directions of CMEs. The CME on October 1, 2011, predominantly expands towards the South-East, while the CME on September 6, 2011, inclines towards the North-West. These findings align with previous studies using multi-viewpoint coronagraphic observations. The study demonstrates the utility of coronal dimming information for early CME direction estimation, providing valuable data for space weather forecasting and mitigating potential adverse impacts on Earth before observation in coronographs' field-of-view.