Forays into Fungal Fighting and Mycological Moisture Modeling

Abstract: As the impending consequences of climate change loom over the Earth, it has become vital for researchers to understand the role microorganisms play in this process. In this paper, we examine how environmental factors, including moisture levels and temperature, affect the expression of certain fungal characteristics on a microscale, and how these in turn affect fungal biodiversity and ecosystem decomposition rates over time. We first present a differential equation model to understand how the distribution of different fungal isolates depends on regional moisture levels. We introduce both slow and sudden variations into the environment in order to represent the various ways climate change will impact fungal ecosystems. This model demonstrates that increased variability in moisture (both short-term and long-term) increases biodiversity and that fungal populations will shift towards more stress-tolerant fungi as aridity increases. The model further suggests the lack of any direct link between biodiversity and decomposition rates. To better describe fungal competition with respect to space, we develop a local agent-based model (ABM). Unlike the previous model, our ABM focuses on individuals, tracking each fungus and the result of its interactions. Our ABM also features a more accurate spatial combat system, allowing us to precisely discern the influence of fungal interactions on the environment. This model corroborates the results of the differential equation model and further suggests that moisture, through its link with temperature and effects on fungal population, also plays a strong role in determining fungal decomposition rates. Together, these models suggest that climate change, which portends increasing variability in regional conditions and higher average temperatures worldwide, will lead to an increase in both wood decomposition rates and, independently, fungal biodiversity.