Optimizing COVID-19 vaccine distribution adding spatio-temporal criteria

Abstract: Massive vaccination against pandemics such as Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 presents several complexities. The criteria to assess public health policies are fundamental to distribute vaccines in an effective way in order to avoid as many infections and deaths as possible. Usually these policies are focused on determining socio-demographic groups of people and establishing a vaccination order among these groups. This work focuses on optimizing the way of distributing vaccines among the different populations of a region for a period of time once established the priority socio-demographic groups. For this aim we use a SEIR model which takes into account vaccination. Also, for this model we prove theoretical results concerning the convergence of solutions on the long-term and the stability of fixed points and analyze the impact of an hypothetical vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemics in Spain. After that, we introduce a heuristic approach in order to minimize the COVID-19 spreading by planning effective vaccine distributions among the populations of a region over a period of time. As an application, the impact of distributing vaccines in the Valencian Community (Spain) according to this method is computed in terms of the number of saved infected individuals.