Universal Bounds for Spreading on Networks

Abstract: Spreading (diffusion) of innovations is a stochastic process on social networks. When the key driving mechanism is peer effects (word of mouth), the rate at which the aggregate adoption level increases with time depends strongly on the network structure. In many applications, however, the network structure is unknown. To estimate the aggregate adoption level for such innovations, we show that the two networks that correspond to the slowest and fastest adoption levels are a homogeneous two-node network and a homogeneous infinite complete network, respectively. Solving the stochastic Bass model on these two networks yields explicit lower and upper bounds for the adoption level on any network. These bounds are tight, and they also hold for the individual adoption probabilities of nodes. The gap between the lower and upper bounds increases monotonically with the ratio of the rates of internal and external influences.