ALMANACS: A Simulatability Benchmark for Language Model Explainability

Abstract: How do we measure the efficacy of LLM explainability methods? While many explainability methods have been developed, they are typically evaluated on bespoke tasks, preventing an apples-to-apples comparison. To help fill this gap, we present ALMANACS, a LLM explainability benchmark. ALMANACS scores explainability methods on simulatability, i.e., how well the explanations improve behavior prediction on new inputs. The ALMANACS scenarios span twelve safety-relevant topics such as ethical reasoning and advanced AI behaviors; they have idiosyncratic premises to invoke model-specific behavior; and they have a train-test distributional shift to encourage faithful explanations. By using another LLM to predict behavior based on the explanations, ALMANACS is a fully automated benchmark. While not a replacement for human evaluations, we aim for ALMANACS to be a complementary, automated tool that allows for fast, scalable evaluation. Using ALMANACS, we evaluate counterfactual, rationalization, attention, and Integrated Gradients explanations. Our results are sobering: when averaged across all topics, no explanation method outperforms the explanation-free control. We conclude that despite modest successes in prior work, developing an explanation method that aids simulatability in ALMANACS remains an open challenge.