An alternative approach to large deviations for the almost-critical Erdős-Rényi random graph

Abstract: We study the near-critical behavior of the sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$ on $n\gg1$ vertices, where the connection probability $p$ satisfies $np = 1+\theta(b_n^2/n)^{1/3}$, with $n^{3/10}\ll {b_n}\ll n^{1/2}$, and $\theta\in\mathbb{R}$. To this end, we introduce an empirical measure that describes connected components of $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$ of mesoscopic size $\propto (nb_n)^{2/3}$, and we characterize its large deviation behavior. The proof hinges on detailed combinatorial estimates and optimization procedures. In particular, we give precise estimates for the probability that the graph has no connected component of mesoscopic size or larger. We argue that these are a stepping stone for the analysis of more general inhomogeneous random graphs. Our proof strategy gives new and accurate estimates of the probability that the sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph is connected.