A contribution to discern the true impact of covid-19 on human mortality

Abstract: The years 2020 and 2021 were characterized by the covid-19 pandemic. The true impact of the pandemic on populations health and life has still to be completely discerned. Objective difficulties to account deaths due to covid-19, determined the risk of underestimating such impact, hence official mortality data started to be examined. The main objective of this work is to discern the true impact of covid-19 in EU during the crucial years 2020 and 2021. The mortality trends, already increasing in EU in pre-pandemic years, are modelled. The excess mortality attributable to covid-19, on yearly basis, is estimated via a novel strategy combining datasets from different official sources. Considering demographic and geographic factors, new indexes are formulated, which allow rankings of EU countries, and socio-political and economic reflections. The new indexes here formulated provide a different perspective to see the relative impact of the pandemic in EU. This work, also in line with the conclusions of previously published authoritative papers on demographic studies of excess mortality, represents an original methodology, which timely implemented, can be at the service of public decision makers for future emerging needs.