Constraining the clustering and 21-cm signature of radio galaxies at cosmic dawn

Abstract: The efficiency of radio emission is an important unknown parameter of early galaxies at cosmic dawn, as models with high efficiency have been shown to modify the cosmological 21-cm signal substantially, deepening the absorption trough and boosting the 21-cm power spectrum. Such models have been previously directly constrained by the overall extragalactic radio background as observed by ARCADE-2 and LWA-1. In this work, we constrain the clustering of high redshift radio sources by utilizing the observed upper limits on arcminute-scale anisotropy from the VLA at 4.9~GHz and ATCA at 8.7~GHz. Using a semi-numerical simulation of a plausible astrophysical model for illustration, we show that the clustering constraints on the radio efficiency are much stronger than those from the overall background intensity, by a factor that varies from 12 at redshift 7 to 30 at redshift 22. As a result, the predicted maximum depth of the global 21-cm signal is lowered by a factor of 5 (to 1700~mK), and the maximum 21-cm power spectrum peak at cosmic dawn is lowered by a factor of 24 (to $2\times 10^5$~mK$^2$). We conclude that the observed clustering is the strongest current direct constraint on such models, but strong early radio emission from galaxies remains viable for producing a strongly enhanced 21-cm signal from cosmic dawn.