Sensitivity Analysis for Matched Observational Studies with Continuous Exposures and Binary Outcomes

Abstract: Matching is one of the most widely used study designs for adjusting for measured confounders in observational studies. However, unmeasured confounding may exist and cannot be removed by matching. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis is typically needed to assess a causal conclusion's sensitivity to unmeasured confounding. Sensitivity analysis frameworks for binary exposures have been well-established for various matching designs and are commonly used in various studies. However, unlike the binary exposure case, there still lacks valid and general sensitivity analysis methods for continuous exposures, except in some special cases such as pair matching. To fill this gap in the binary outcome case, we develop a sensitivity analysis framework for general matching designs with continuous exposures and binary outcomes. First, we use probabilistic lattice theory to show our sensitivity analysis approach is finite-population-exact under Fisher's sharp null. Second, we prove a novel design sensitivity formula as a powerful tool for asymptotically evaluating the performance of our sensitivity analysis approach. Third, to allow effect heterogeneity with binary outcomes, we introduce a framework for conducting asymptotically exact inference and sensitivity analysis on generalized attributable effects with binary outcomes via mixed-integer programming. Fourth, for the continuous outcomes case, we show that conducting an asymptotically exact sensitivity analysis in matched observational studies when both the exposures and outcomes are continuous is generally NP-hard, except in some special cases such as pair matching. As a real data application, we apply our new methods to study the effect of early-life lead exposure on juvenile delinquency. We also develop a publicly available R package for implementation of the methods in this work.