Forecasting dengue outbreaks with uncertainty using seasonal weather patterns

Abstract: Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted to humans by vectors of genus Aedes and is a global threat with health, social, and economic impact in many of the tropical countries including Sri Lanka. The virus transmission is significantly impacted by environmental conditions, with a notable contribution from elevated per-capita vector density. These conditions are dynamic in nature and specially having the tropical climate, Sri Lanka experiences seasonal weather patterns dominated by monsoons. In this work, we investigate the dynamic influence of environmental conditions on dengue emergence in Colombo district where dengue is extremely prevalent in Sri Lanka. A novel approach leveraging the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations has been employed to identify seasonal patterns of dengue disease emergence, utilizing the dynamics of weather patterns governing in the region. The newly developed algorithm allows us to estimate the timing of dengue outbreaks with uncertainty, enabling accurate forecasts of upcoming disease emergence patterns for better preparedness.