Using Geographically Weighted Models to Explore Temporal and Spatial Varying Impacts on Commute Trip Change Due to Covid-19

Abstract: COVID-19 has deeply affected daily life and travel behaviors. Understanding these changes is crucial, prompting an investigation into socio-demographic and socio-economic factors. This study used large-scale mobile device location data in Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia (DMV area) to unveil the impacts of these variables on commute trip changes. It reflected short and long-term impacts through linear regression and geographically weighted regression models. Findings indicated that counties with a higher percentage of people using walking and biking during the initial phase of COVID-19 experienced greater reductions in commute trips. For the long-term effect in November, the impact of active modes became insignificant, and individuals using public modes showed more significant trip reductions. Positive correlations were observed between median income levels and reduced commute trips. Sectors requiring ongoing outdoor operations during the pandemic showed substantial negative correlations. In the DMV area, counties with a higher proportion of Democratic voters experienced less trip reduction. Applying Geographically Weighted Regression models captured local spatial relationships, showing the emergence of local correlations as the pandemic evolved, suggesting a geographical impact pattern. Initially global, the pandemic's impact on commuting behaviors became more influenced by spatial factors over time, showing localized effects.