Extreme statistics and extreme events in dynamical models of turbulence

Abstract: We present a study of the intermittent properties of a shell model of turbulence with unprecedented statistics, about $\sim 10^7$ eddy turn over time, achieved thanks to an implementation on a large-scale parallel GPU factory. This allows us to quantify the inertial range anomalous scaling properties of the velocity fluctuations up to the 24th order moment. Through a careful assessment of the statistical and systematic uncertainties, we show that none of the phenomenological and theoretical models previously proposed in the literature to predict the anomalous power-law exponents in the inertial range is in agreement with our high-precision numerical measurements. We find that at asymptotically high order moments, the anomalous exponents tend towards a linear scaling, suggesting that extreme turbulent events are dominated by one leading singularity. We found that systematic corrections to scaling induced by the infrared and ultraviolet (viscous) cut-offs are the main limitations to precision for low-order moments, while high orders are mainly affected by the finite statistical samples. The unprecedentedly high fidelity numerical results reported in this work offer an ideal benchmark for the development of future theoretical models of intermittency in dynamical systems for either extreme events (high-order moments) or typical fluctuations (low-order moments). For the latter, we show that we achieve a precision in the determination of the inertial range scaling exponents of the order of one part over ten thousand (5th significant digit), which must be considered a record for out-of-equilibrium fluid-mechanics systems and models.