Rare events in a stochastic vegetation-water dynamical system based on machine learning

Abstract: Stochastic vegetation-water dynamical systems play a pivotal role in ecological stability, biodiversity, water resource management, and adaptation to climate change. This research proposes a machine learning-based method for analyzing rare events in stochastic vegetation-water dynamical systems with multiplicative Gaussian noise. Utilizing the Freidlin-Wentzell large deviation theory, we derive the asymptotic expressions for the quasipotential and the mean first exit time. Based on the decomposition of vector field, we design a neural network architecture to compute the most probable transition paths and the mean first exit time for both non-characteristic and characteristic boundary scenarios. The results indicate that this method can effectively predict early warnings of vegetation degradation, providing new theoretical foundations and mathematical tools for ecological management and conservation. Moreover, the method offers new possibilities for exploring more complex and higher-dimensional stochastic dynamical systems.