Papers
Topics
Authors
Recent
Search
2000 character limit reached

Criminal organizations exhibit hysteresis, resilience, and robustness by balancing security and efficiency

Published 6 Mar 2024 in physics.soc-ph and cs.SI | (2403.03720v3)

Abstract: The interplay between criminal organizations and law enforcement disruption strategies is crucial in criminology. Criminal enterprises, like legitimate businesses, balance visibility and security to thrive. This study uses evolutionary game theory to analyze criminal networks' dynamics, resilience to interventions, and responses to external conditions. We find strong hysteresis effects, challenging traditional deterrence-focused strategies. Optimal thresholds for organization formation or dissolution are defined by these effects. Stricter punishment doesn't always deter organized crime linearly. Network structure, particularly link density and skill assortativity, significantly influences organization formation and stability. These insights advocate for adaptive policy-making and strategic law enforcement to effectively disrupt criminal networks.

Definition Search Book Streamline Icon: https://streamlinehq.com
References (65)
  1. “Transnational Crime Is a $1.6 Trillion to $2.2 Trillion Annual “Business”, Finds New GFI Report” Global Financial Integrity URL: https://gfintegrity.org/press-release/transnational-crime-is-a-1-6-trillion-to-2-2-trillion-annual-business-finds-new-gfi-report/
  2. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime “World Drug Report 2023”, https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/world-drug-report-2023.html, 2023
  3. James O. Finckenauer “Problems of Definition: What Is Organized Crime?”, pp. 63–83 DOI: 10.1007/s12117-005-1038-4
  4. Frank E. Hagan ““Organized Crime” and “Organized Crime”: Indeterminate Problems of Definition”, pp. 127–137 DOI: 10.1007/s12117-006-1017-4
  5. Thomas C Schelling “What Is the Business of Organized Crime?”
  6. “Spatialising Illicit Commodity Chains: Comparing Coffee and Cocaine”, pp. 501–510 DOI: 10.1111/area.12724
  7. Edward R Kleemans and Henk G van den Bunt “The Social Embedness of Organized Crime”, pp. 19–36
  8. Carlo Morselli, Cynthia Giguère and Katia Petit “The Efficiency/Security Trade-off in Criminal Networks”, pp. 143–153 DOI: 10.1016/j.socnet.2006.05.001
  9. Carlo Morselli “The Efficiency–Security Trade-Off” In Inside Criminal Networks, Studies of Organized Crime Springer, pp. 1–9 DOI: 10.1007/978-0-387-09526-4_4
  10. Klaus Lampe and Per Ole Johansen “Organized Crime and Trust:: On the Conceptualization and Empirical Relevance of Trust in the Context of Criminal Networks” Routledge, pp. 159–184 DOI: 10.1080/17440570500096734
  11. “Organised Cime, Trafficking, Drugs: Selected Papers Presented at the Annual Conference of the European Society of Criminology, Helsinki 2003”, Publication Series / European Institute for Crime Prevention and Control, Affiliated with the United Nations 42 European Institute for Crime Prevention and Control, affiliated with the United Nations
  12. Francesco Calderoni and Gian Maria Campedelli “Recruitment into Organised Criminal Groups: A Systematic Review”
  13. Martin Bouchard “Collaboration and Boundaries in Organized Crime: A Network Perspective” The University of Chicago Press, pp. 425–469 DOI: 10.1086/708435
  14. Julie Ayling “Criminal Organizations and Resilience”, pp. 182–196 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijlcj.2009.10.003
  15. Tomáš Diviák “Structural Resilience and Recovery of a Criminal Network after Disruption: A Simulation Study” DOI: 10.1007/s11292-023-09563-z
  16. P A C Duijn “Detecting and Disrupting Criminal Networks: A Data Driven Approach” DOI: 978-90-77595-41-1
  17. Paul A.C. Duijn, Victor Kashirin and Peter M.A. Sloot “The Relative Ineffectiveness of Criminal Network Disruption” In Scientific Reports 4, 2014 DOI: 10.1038/srep04238
  18. James Nevin, Paul Groth and Michael Lees “Data Integration Landscapes: The Case for Non-optimal Solutions in Network Diffusion Models” In Computational Science – ICCS 2023, Lecture Notes in Computer Science Springer Nature Switzerland, pp. 494–508 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-35995-8_35
  19. “How Similar Are Modern Criminal Syndicates to Traditional Mafias?” In Crime and Justice 49 The University of Chicago Press, 2020, pp. 223–287 DOI: 10.1086/708869
  20. “Covert Network Construction, Disruption, and Resilience: A Survey” In Mathematics 10.16 Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2022, pp. 2929 DOI: 10.3390/math10162929
  21. “Extended stochastic block models with application to criminal networks” In The annals of applied statistics 16.4 NIH Public Access, 2022, pp. 2369
  22. “Machine learning partners in criminal networks” In Scientific Reports 12.1 Nature Publishing Group UK London, 2022, pp. 15746
  23. “Inductive and Transductive Link Prediction for Criminal Network Analysis” In Journal of Computational Science 72, 2023, pp. 102063 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocs.2023.102063
  24. Nora Assouli, Khelifa Benahmed and Brahim Gasbaoui “How to Predict Crime — Informatics-Inspired Approach from Link Prediction” In Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 570, 2021, pp. 125795 DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125795
  25. “Organized Crime Groups: A Systematic Review of Individual-Level Risk Factors Related to Recruitment” In Campbell Systematic Reviews 18.1, 2022, pp. e1218 DOI: 10.1002/cl2.1218
  26. Russell W. Cooper “Coordination Games: Complementarities and Macroeconomics” Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 1999
  27. Simon Weidenholzer “Coordination Games and Local Interactions: A Survey of the Game Theoretic Literature” In Games 1.4 Molecular Diversity Preservation International, 2010, pp. 551–585 DOI: 10.3390/g1040551
  28. David J Cooper and Roberto A Weber “Recent advances in experimental coordination games” In Handbook of experimental game theory Edward Elgar, 2020, pp. 149–183
  29. “Paradigm Shifts and the Interplay between State, Business and Civil Sectors” In Royal Society Open Science 3.12 Royal Society, 2016, pp. 160753 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.160753
  30. Tomasz Raducha and Maxi San Miguel “Coordination and Equilibrium Selection in Games: The Role of Local Effects” In Scientific Reports 12.1 Nature Publishing Group, 2022, pp. 3373 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-07195-3
  31. Tomasz Raducha and Maxi San Miguel “Evolutionary Games on Multilayer Networks: Coordination and Equilibrium Selection” In Scientific Reports 13.1 Nature Publishing Group, 2023, pp. 11818 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38589-6
  32. “Network Effects on Coordination in Asymmetric Games” In Scientific Reports 7.1 Nature Publishing Group, 2017, pp. 17016 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-16982-2
  33. “An Exploration of Drivers of Opinion Dynamics” In Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 27.1, 2024, pp. 5 DOI: 10.18564/jasss.5212
  34. Bijan Berenji, Tom Chou and Maria R. D’Orsogna “Recidivism and Rehabilitation of Criminal Offenders: A Carrot and Stick Evolutionary Game” In PLOS ONE 9.1 Public Library of Science, 2014, pp. e85531 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0085531
  35. Ross Cressman, William G. Morrison and Jean-Francois Wen “On the Evolutionary Dynamics of Crime” In The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d’Economique 31.5, 1998, pp. 1101 DOI: 10.2307/136461
  36. Dirk Helbing “Quantitative Sociodynamics: Stochastic Methods and Models of Social Interaction Processes” Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer, 2010 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-11546-2
  37. Roy J. Glauber “Time-Dependent Statistics of the Ising Model” In Journal of Mathematical Physics 4.2, 1963, pp. 294–307 DOI: 10.1063/1.1703954
  38. Jane Schneider and Peter T Schneider “Reversible destiny: Mafia, antimafia, and the struggle for Palermo” Univ of California Press, 2003
  39. C. S. Holling “Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems (1973)” In Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems (1973) Yale University Press, pp. 245–260 DOI: 10.12987/9780300188479-023
  40. Scott W. Duxbury and Dana L. Haynie “Criminal Network Security: An Agent-Based Approach to Evaluating Network Resilience*” In Criminology 57.2, 2019, pp. 314–342 DOI: 10.1111/1745-9125.12203
  41. Mark AR Kleiman “When brute force fails: How to have less crime and less punishment” Princeton University Press, 2009
  42. Robert Jervis “Deterrence theory revisited” In World Politics 31.2 Cambridge University Press, 1979, pp. 289–324
  43. Alex Raskolnikov “Criminal deterrence: A review of the missing literature” In Supreme Court Economic Review 28.1 The University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL, 2020, pp. 1–59
  44. “The empirical status of deterrence theory: A meta-analysis” In Taking stock Routledge, 2017, pp. 367–395
  45. Kelli D. Tomlinson “An Examination of Deterrence Theory: Where Do We Stand” In Federal Probation 80.3, 2016, pp. 33–38 URL: https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/fedpro80&i=181
  46. Peter Reuter “Disorganized crime: The economics of the visible hand” MIT press Cambridge, MA, 1983
  47. Klaus Von Lampe “The Ties That Bind: A Taxonomy of Associational Criminal Structures” In Illegal Entrepreneurship, Organized Crime and Social Control 14 Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016, pp. 19–35 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-31608-6_2
  48. Carlo Morselli, Mathilde Turcotte and Valentina Tenti “The Mobility of Criminal Groups” In Global Crime 12.3 Routledge, 2011, pp. 165–188 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2011.589593
  49. Jay S. Albanese “Why Organized Crime Seeks New Criminal Markets” In Illegal Mining: Organized Crime, Corruption, and Ecocide in a Resource-Scarce World Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020, pp. 31–42 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-46327-4_2
  50. Isaac Ehrlich “Crime, Punishment, and the Market for Offenses” In Journal of Economic Perspectives 10.1, 1996, pp. 43–67 DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.1.43
  51. Anusua Datta “California’s Three Strikes Law Revisited: Assessing the Long-Term Effects of the Law” In Atlantic Economic Journal 45.2, 2017, pp. 225–249 DOI: 10.1007/s11293-017-9544-8
  52. “Collateral Consequences of Imprisonment for Children, Communities, and Prisoners” In Crime and Justice 26 The University of Chicago Press, 1999, pp. 121–162 DOI: 10.1086/449296
  53. “Tough on crime and strong on human rights: The challenge for us all” In Law, Democracy & Development 4.2, 2000, pp. 121–135
  54. P.K. Manning “Policing Contingencies” University of Chicago Press, 2010 URL: https://books.google.nl/books?id=UVyh4Yb46jIC
  55. Tom R Tyler and Yuen J Huo “Trust in the law: Encouraging public cooperation with the police and courts” Russell Sage Foundation, 2002
  56. Patrick Van Calster “Re-Visiting Mr. Nice. On Organized Crime as Conversational Interaction” In Crime, Law and Social Change 45.4, 2006, pp. 337–359 DOI: 10.1007/s10611-006-9038-0
  57. Patrick Van Calster “Crime, Control and Complexity”
  58. M. E. J. Newman “Mixing Patterns in Networks” DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.67.026126
  59. S Bernstein “Proof of the Theorem of Weierstrass Based on the Calculus of Probabilities”
  60. Barry Simon “The Ising Model”, pp. 27–32 DOI: 10.1142/9789812813893_0004
  61. “Jacobellis v. Ohio, 378 U.S. 184 | Casetext Search + Citator” URL: https://casetext.com/case/jacobellis-v-state-of-ohio
  62. Michael E. Porter “Competitive Advantage of Nations: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance” Simon and Schuster
  63. Mark Granovetter “Economic Action and Social Structure: The Problem of Embeddedness” University of Chicago Press, pp. 481–510 URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2780199
  64. Scott L. Feld “The Focused Organization of Social Ties” The University of Chicago Press, pp. 1015–1035 DOI: 10.1086/227352
  65. John Scott and Peter J. Carrington “The SAGE Handbook of Social Network Analysis” SAGE

Summary

No one has generated a summary of this paper yet.

Sign Up to Summarize

Paper to Video (Beta)

No one has generated a video about this paper yet.

Sign Up to Generate All Videos Subscribe on YouTube

Whiteboard

No one has generated a whiteboard explanation for this paper yet.

Sign Up to Generate

Open Problems

We haven't generated a list of open problems mentioned in this paper yet.

Generate Now

Continue Learning

We haven't generated follow-up questions for this paper yet.

Generate Now

Collections

Sign up for free to add this paper to one or more collections.

Sign Up