Graph Language Model (GLM): A new graph-based approach to detect social instabilities

Abstract: This scientific report presents a novel methodology for the early prediction of important political events using News datasets. The methodology leverages natural language processing, graph theory, clique analysis, and semantic relationships to uncover hidden predictive signals within the data. Initially, we designed a preliminary version of the method and tested it on a few events. This analysis revealed limitations in the initial research phase. We then enhanced the model in two key ways: first, we added a filtration step to only consider politically relevant news before further processing; second, we adjusted the input features to make the alert system more sensitive to significant spikes in the data. After finalizing the improved methodology, we tested it on eleven events including US protests, the Ukraine war, and French protests. Results demonstrate the superiority of our approach compared to baseline methods. Through targeted refinements, our model can now provide earlier and more accurate predictions of major political events based on subtle patterns in news data.