Single track orbit determination analysis for low Earth orbit with approximated J2 dynamics

Abstract: In the domain of Space Situational Awareness (SSA), the challenges pertaining to orbit determination and catalog correlation are notably pronounced, partly attributable to the escalating presence of non-cooperative satellites engaging in unspecified maneuvers at irregular intervals. This study introduces an initial orbit determination methodology reliant upon data obtained from a single surveillance radar, such as the Spanish Space Surveillance and Tracking Surveillance Radar (S3TSR). The need for fast algorithms within an operational context is considered here as the main design driver. The result is a least-squares fitting procedure that incorporates an analytically formulated approximation of the dynamics under the J2 perturbation, valid for short-term propagation. The algorithm makes use of all available observables, including range-rate, which makes it distinct from other similar methods. The method is compared in a battery of synthetic tests against a classical range and angles fitting method (GTDS) to study the effect of the track length and density of measurements on the full state estimation. The presented methodology is quite versatile, and it is leveraged to improve the estimation quality by adding information of the object's orbital plane obtained from predictions. The resulting method has been named OPOD.