Repeating Nuclear Transients as Candidate Electromagnetic Counterparts of LISA Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals

Abstract: Extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are one of the primary targets for the recently adopted millihertz gravitational-wave (GW) observatory LISA. Some previous studies have argued that a fraction of all EMRIs form in matter-rich environments, and can potentially explain the dozens of soft X-ray band ($\sim 10^{-1} \rm keV$), low-frequency ($\sim 0.1$ mHz) periodic phenomena known as quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) and quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). Here, using a representative EMRI population retrofitted with cutoffs on LISA-band SNRs and luminosity distances to account for the sensitivity of current instruments, we estimate the mean frequency band in which QPEs and QPOs originating from detectable LISA EMRIs may be emitting an X-ray signal ``today'' (i.e., in 2024) to be $0.46 \pm 0.22$ mHz. We also model the well-known QPO source, RE J1034+396, which falls in this frequency band, as an EMRI assuming its primary black hole mass to be $10^6-10^7 M_\odot$. Through a prior-predictive analysis, we estimate the orbiting compact object's mass to be $46^{+ 10}{-40} M\odot$ and the source's LISA-band SNR as $\approx 14$, highlighting it as a candidate multi-messenger EMRI target. We also highlight the role of current and near-future X-ray and UV observatories in enabling multi-messenger observations of EMRIs in conjunction with LISA, and conclude with a discussion of caveats of the current analysis, such as the exclusion of eccentricity and inclination from the model, and the measurability of sub-solar mass compact object EMRIs.