Global versus Local: Evaluating AlexNet Architectures for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation

Abstract: Given the destructive impacts of tropical cyclones, it is critical to have a reliable system for cyclone intensity detection. Various techniques are available for this purpose, each with differing levels of accuracy. In this paper, we introduce two ensemble-based models based on AlexNet architecture to estimate tropical cyclone intensity using visible satellite images. The first model, trained on the entire dataset, is called the global AlexNet model. The second model is a distributed version of AlexNet in which multiple AlexNets are trained separately on subsets of the training data categorized according to the Saffir-Simpson wind speed scale prescribed by the meterologists. We evaluated the performance of both models against a deep learning benchmark model called \textit{Deepti} using a publicly available cyclone image dataset. Results indicate that both the global model (with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.03 knots) and the distributed model (with a RMSE of 9.3 knots) outperform the benchmark model (with a RMSE of 13.62 knots). We provide a thorough discussion of our solution approach, including an explanantion of the AlexNet's performance using gradient class activation maps (grad-CAM). Our proposed solution strategy allows future experimentation with various deep learning models in both single and multi-channel settings.