Scenario Reduction with Guarantees for Stochastic Optimal Control of Linear Systems

Abstract: Scenario reduction algorithms can be an effective means to provide a tractable description of the uncertainty in optimal control problems. However, they might significantly compromise the performance of the controlled system. In this paper, we propose a method to compensate for the effect of scenario reduction on stochastic optimal control problems for chance-constrained linear systems with additive uncertainty. We consider a setting in which the uncertainty has a discrete distribution, where the number of possible realizations is large. We then propose a reduction algorithm with a problem-dependent loss function, and we define sufficient conditions on the stochastic optimal control problem to ensure out-of-sample guarantees (i.e., against the original distribution of the uncertainty) for the controlled system in terms of performance and chance constraint satisfaction. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on a numerical example.