Using Game Engines and Machine Learning to Create Synthetic Satellite Imagery for a Tabletop Verification Exercise

Abstract: Satellite imagery is regarded as a great opportunity for citizen-based monitoring of activities of interest. Relevant imagery may however not be available at sufficiently high resolution, quality, or cadence -- let alone be uniformly accessible to open-source analysts. This limits an assessment of the true long-term potential of citizen-based monitoring of nuclear activities using publicly available satellite imagery. In this article, we demonstrate how modern game engines combined with advanced machine-learning techniques can be used to generate synthetic imagery of sites of interest with the ability to choose relevant parameters upon request; these include time of day, cloud cover, season, or level of activity onsite. At the same time, resolution and off-nadir angle can be adjusted to simulate different characteristics of the satellite. While there are several possible use-cases for synthetic imagery, here we focus on its usefulness to support tabletop exercises in which simple monitoring scenarios can be examined to better understand verification capabilities enabled by new satellite constellations and very short revisit times.