DESI Dark Energy Time Evolution is Recovered by Cosmologically Coupled Black Holes

Abstract: Recent baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) provide evidence that dark energy (DE) evolves with time, as parameterized by a $w_0 w_a$ equation of state. Cosmologically coupled black holes (BHs) provide a DE source that naturally evolves with time, because BH production tracks cosmic star-formation. Using DESI BAO measurements and priors informed by Big Bang Nucleosynthesis, we measure the fraction of baryonic density converted into BHs, assuming that all DE is sourced by BH production. We find that the best-fit DE density tracks each DESI best-fit $w_0w_a$ model within $1\sigma$, except at redshifts $z \lesssim 0.2$, highlighting limitations of the $w_0w_a$ parameterization. Cosmologically coupled BHs produce $H_0 = (69.94 \pm 0.81)~\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, with the same $\chi^2$ as $\Lambda$CDM, and with two fewer parameters than $w_0w_a$. This value reduces tension with SH0ES to $2.7\sigma$ and is in excellent agreement with recent measurements from the Chicago-Carnegie Hubble Program. Because cosmologically coupled BH production depletes the baryon density established by primordial nucleosynthesis, these BHs provide a physical explanation for the ``missing baryon problem'' and the anomalously low sum of neutrino masses preferred by DESI. The global evolution of DE is an orthogonal probe of cosmological coupling, complementing constraints on BH mass-growth from elliptical galaxies, stellar binaries, globular clusters, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA merging population, and X-ray binaries. A DE density that correlates with cosmic star-formation: 1) is a natural outcome of cosmological coupling in BH populations; 2) eases tension between early and late-time cosmological probes; and 3) produces time-evolution toward a late-time $\Lambda$CDM cosmology different from Cosmic Microwave Background projections.