Prediction of healthcare costs on consumer direct health plan in the Brazilian context

Abstract: The rise in healthcare costs has led to the adoption of cost-sharing devices in health plans. This article explores this discussion by simulating Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) to cover medical and hospital expenses, supported by catastrophic insurance. Simulating 10 million lives, we evaluate the utilization of catastrophic insurance and the balances of HSAs at the end of working life. To estimate annual expenditures, a Markov Chains approach - distinct from the usual ones - was used based on recent past expenditures, age range, and gender. The results suggest that HSAs do not create inequalities, offering a viable method to sustain private healthcare financing for the elderly.