Quantifying Influencer Impact on Affective Polarization

Abstract: In today's digital age, social media platforms play a crucial role in shaping public opinion. This study explores how discussions led by influencers on Twitter, now known as 'X', affect public sentiment and contribute to online polarization. We developed a counterfactual framework to analyze the polarization scores of conversations in scenarios both with and without the presence of an influential figure. Two case studies, centered on the polarizing issues of climate change and gun control, were examined. Our research highlights the significant impact these figures have on public discourse, providing valuable insights into how online discussions can influence societal divisions.