Assessing the significance of longitudinal data in Alzheimer's Disease forecasting

Abstract: In this study, we employ a transformer encoder model to characterize the significance of longitudinal patient data for forecasting the progression of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Our model, Longitudinal Forecasting Model for Alzheimer's Disease (LongForMAD), harnesses the comprehensive temporal information embedded in sequences of patient visits that incorporate multimodal data, providing a deeper understanding of disease progression than can be drawn from single-visit data alone. We present an empirical analysis across two patient groups-Cognitively Normal (CN) and Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI)-over a span of five follow-up years. Our findings reveal that models incorporating more extended patient histories can outperform those relying solely on present information, suggesting a deeper historical context is critical in enhancing predictive accuracy for future AD progression. Our results support the incorporation of longitudinal data in clinical settings to enhance the early detection and monitoring of AD. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/batuhankmkaraman/LongForMAD}.