HERMES: Gamma Ray Burst and Gravitational Wave counterpart hunter

Abstract: Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs) bridge relativistic astrophysics and multi-messenger astronomy. Space-based gamma/X-ray wide field detectors have proven essential to detect and localize the highly variable GRB prompt emission, which is also a counterpart of gravitational wave events. We study the capabilities to detect long and short GRBs by the High Energy Rapid Modular Ensemble of Satellites (HERMES) Pathfinder (HP) and SpIRIT, namely a swarm of six 3U CubeSats to be launched in early 2025, and a 6U CubeSat launched on December 1st 2023. We also study the capabilities of two advanced configurations of swarms of >8 satellites with improved detector performances (HERMES Constellations). The HERMES detectors, sensitive down to ~2-3 keV, will be able to detect faint/soft GRBs which comprise X-ray flashes and high redshift bursts. By combining state-of-the-art long and short GRB population models with a description of the single module performance, we estimate that HP will detect ~195^{+22}_{-21} long GRBs (3.4^{+0.3}_{-0.8} at redshift z>6) and ~19^{+5}_{-3} short GRBs per year. The larger HERMES Constellations under study can detect between ~1300 and ~3000 long GRBs per year and between ~160 and ~400 short GRBs per year, depending on the chosen configuration, with a rate of long GRBs above z>6 between 30 and 75 per year. Finally, we explore the capabilities of HERMES to detect short GRBs as electromagnetic counterparts of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers detected as gravitational signals by current and future ground-based interferometers. Under the assumption that the GRB jets are structured, we estimate that HP can provide up to 1 (14) yr^{-1} joint detections during the fifth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing run (Einstein Telescope single triangle 10 km arm configuration). These numbers become 4 (100) yr^{-1}, respectively, for the HERMES Constellation configuration.