Covariate Shift Corrected Conditional Randomization Test

Abstract: Conditional independence tests are crucial across various disciplines in determining the independence of an outcome variable $Y$ from a treatment variable $X$, conditioning on a set of confounders $Z$. The Conditional Randomization Test (CRT) offers a powerful framework for such testing by assuming known distributions of $X \mid Z$; it controls the Type-I error exactly, allowing for the use of flexible, black-box test statistics. In practice, testing for conditional independence often involves using data from a source population to draw conclusions about a target population. This can be challenging due to covariate shift -- differences in the distribution of $X$, $Z$, and surrogate variables, which can affect the conditional distribution of $Y \mid X, Z$ -- rendering traditional CRT approaches invalid. To address this issue, we propose a novel Covariate Shift Corrected Pearson Chi-squared Conditional Randomization (csPCR) test. This test adapts to covariate shifts by integrating importance weights and employing the control variates method to reduce variance in the test statistics and thus enhance power. Theoretically, we establish that the csPCR test controls the Type-I error asymptotically. Empirically, through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method not only maintains control over Type-I errors but also exhibits superior power, confirming its efficacy and practical utility in real-world scenarios where covariate shifts are prevalent. Finally, we apply our methodology to a real-world dataset to assess the impact of a COVID-19 treatment on the 90-day mortality rate among patients.