GLOBUS: Global building renovation potential by 2070

Abstract: Surpassing the two large emission sectors of transportation and industry, the building sector accounted for 34% and 37% of global energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2021, respectively. The building sector, the final piece to be addressed in the transition to net-zero carbon emissions, requires a comprehensive, multisectoral strategy for reducing emissions. Until now, the absence of data on global building floorspace has impeded the measurement of building carbon intensity (carbon emissions per floorspace) and the identification of ways to achieve carbon neutrality for buildings. For this study, we develop a global building stock model (GLOBUS) to fill that data gap. Our study's primary contribution lies in providing a dataset of global building stock turnover using scenarios that incorporate various levels of building renovation. By unifying the evaluation indicators, the dataset empowers building science researchers to perform comparative analyses based on floorspace. Specifically, the building stock dataset establishes a reference for measuring carbon emission intensity and decarbonization intensity of buildings within different countries. Further, we emphasize the sufficiency of existing buildings by incorporating building renovation into the model. Renovation can minimize the need to expand the building stock, thereby bolstering decarbonization of the building sector.