An evidential time-to-event prediction model based on Gaussian random fuzzy numbers

Abstract: We introduce an evidential model for time-to-event prediction with censored data. In this model, uncertainty on event time is quantified by Gaussian random fuzzy numbers, a newly introduced family of random fuzzy subsets of the real line with associated belief functions, generalizing both Gaussian random variables and Gaussian possibility distributions. Our approach makes minimal assumptions about the underlying time-to-event distribution. The model is fit by minimizing a generalized negative log-likelihood function that accounts for both normal and censored data. Comparative experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the very good performance of our model as compared to the state-of-the-art.