Integrating Fuzzy Logic with Causal Inference: Enhancing the Pearl and Neyman-Rubin Methodologies

Abstract: In this paper, we generalize the Pearl and Neyman-Rubin methodologies in causal inference by introducing a generalized approach that incorporates fuzzy logic. Indeed, we introduce a fuzzy causal inference approach that consider both the vagueness and imprecision inherent in data, as well as the subjective human perspective characterized by fuzzy terms such as 'high', 'medium', and 'low'. To do so, we introduce two fuzzy causal effect formulas: the Fuzzy Average Treatment Effect (FATE) and the Generalized Fuzzy Average Treatment Effect (GFATE), together with their normalized versions: NFATE and NGFATE. When dealing with a binary treatment variable, our fuzzy causal effect formulas coincide with classical Average Treatment Effect (ATE) formula, that is a well-established and popular metric in causal inference. In FATE, all values of the treatment variable are considered equally important. In contrast, GFATE takes into account the rarity and frequency of these values. We show that for linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), the normalized versions of our formulas, NFATE and NGFATE, are equivalent to ATE. Further, we provide identifiability criteria for these formulas and show their stability with respect to minor variations in the fuzzy subsets and the probability distributions involved. This ensures the robustness of our approach in handling small perturbations in the data. Finally, we provide several experimental examples to empirically validate and demonstrate the practical application of our proposed fuzzy causal inference methods.