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The myth of declining competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage

Published 27 Jun 2024 in econ.GN, physics.soc-ph, q-fin.EC, and stat.AP | (2406.19222v4)

Abstract: The degree of competitive balance is a crucial issue in the analysis of sports competitions. According to previous studies, competitive balance has significantly declined in the UEFA Champions League group stage over the recent decades. Our paper introduces six alternative indices in order to explore the robustness of these results. The ex ante measures are based on Elo ratings, while our ex post measures compare the group ranking to reasonable benchmarks. We find no evidence of any trend in the competitive balance of the UEFA Champions League group stage between the 2003/04 and 2023/24 seasons.

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